Earnings still solid (different from 2008 & 2000) so far…

This post is an update from our January 12 post: https://www.hedgefundtips.com/earnings-still-strong-different-from-2008-2000-so-far/

The new data is as of 1/17/2019 close.  While the estimates have come down $.35 for Q4 2018, $.49 for Q1 2019, $.35 for Q2 2019, $.31 for Q3 2019, and $.65 for Q4 2019, the basic premise below still holds for now:

The 20 years of quarterly earnings history below are compliments of Howard Silverblatt – S&P Dow Jones Indices Senior Index Analyst. I have bolded those periods (2000 & 2007) where there was an abrupt drop in earnings (which portended a steep market correction). In 2007 we had fair warning of what was to come from the big drop in earnings in Q4 2007. Similarly we had fair warning in Q4 2000. While the Nasdaq peak was in March 2000, the S&P held up until Oct 2000 before subsequently dropping >50%. In both 2000 and 2007 the “tell” was in the earnings drop which came ahead of the major drop in the indices. The “tell” in 2000 was the 33% sequential drop in earnings from Q3 to Q4 2000. The “tell” in 2007 was the 30.75% sequential drop in earnings from Q2 to Q3 2007, followed by another sequential drop of 48.38% from Q3 to Q4 2007. We are not seeing anything like that at present. While estimates have come down a bit, we are not seeing the type of drops that would foretell major carnage in the markets – at present. We’ll know a lot more in a few weeks as more companies report and give guidance, but early indications are solid with ~11% of the S&P reporting so far.

QUARTER OPERATING AS REPORTED
END EARNINGS EARNINGS
PRICE PER SHR PER SHR
(ests are (ests are
bottom up) bottom up
ESTIMATES
12/31/2019 $44.71 $40.84
9/30/2019 $43.90 $40.11
6/30/2019 $42.02 $37.70
3/31/2019 $38.98 $34.67
12/31/2018 (13.4%) 2506.85 $40.32 $36.07
ACTUALS
9/30/2018 2913.98 $41.38 $36.36
6/30/2018 2718.37 $38.65 $34.05
3/31/2018 2640.87 $36.54 $33.02
12/31/2017 2673.61 $33.85 $26.96
9/30/2017 2519.36 $31.33 $28.45
6/30/2017 2423.41 $30.51 $27.01
3/31/2017 2362.72 $28.82 $27.46
12/31/2016 2238.83 $27.90 $24.16
9/30/2016 2168.27 $28.69 $25.39
6/30/2016 2098.86 $25.70 $23.28
3/31/2016 2059.74 $23.97 $21.72
12/31/2015 2043.94 $23.06 $18.70
9/30/2015 1920.03 $25.44 $23.22
6/30/2015 2063.11 $26.14 $22.80
3/31/2015 2067.89 $25.81 $21.81
12/31/2014 2058.90 $26.75 $22.83
9/30/2014 1972.29 $29.60 $27.47
6/30/2014 1960.23 $29.34 $27.14
3/31/2014 1872.34 $27.32 $24.87
12/31/2013 1848.36 $28.25 $26.48
9/30/2013 1681.55 $26.92 $24.63
6/30/2013 1606.28 $26.36 $24.87
3/31/2013 1569.19 $25.77 $24.22
12/31/2012 1426.19 $23.15 $20.65
9/30/2012 1440.67 $24.00 $21.21
6/30/2012 1362.16 $25.43 $21.62
3/31/2012 1408.47 $24.24 $23.03
12/31/2011 1257.60 $23.73 $20.64
9/30/2011 1131.42 $25.29 $22.63
6/30/2011 1320.64 $24.86 $22.24
3/31/2011 1325.83 $22.56 $21.44
12/31/2010 1257.64 $21.93 $20.67
9/30/2010 1141.20 $21.56 $19.52
6/30/2010 1030.71 $20.90 $19.68
3/31/2010 1169.43 $19.38 $17.48
12/31/2009 1115.10 $17.16 $15.18
9/30/2009 1057.08 $15.78 $14.76
6/30/2009 919.32 $13.81 $13.51
3/31/2009 797.87 $10.11 $7.52
12/31/2008 903.25 -$0.09 -$23.25
9/30/2008 1166.36 $15.96 $9.73
6/30/2008 1280.00 $17.02 $12.86
3/31/2008 1322.70 $16.62 $15.54
12/31/2007 1468.36 $15.22 $7.82
9/30/2007 1526.75 $20.87 $15.15
6/30/2007 1503.35 $24.06 $21.88
3/31/2007 1420.86 $22.39 $21.33
12/31/2006 1418.30 $21.99 $20.24
9/30/2006 1335.85 $23.03 $21.47
6/30/2006 1270.20 $21.95 $20.11
3/31/2006 1294.83 $20.75 $19.69
12/31/2005 1248.29 $20.19 $17.30
9/30/2005 1228.81 $18.84 $17.39
6/30/2005 1191.33 $19.42 $18.29
3/31/2005 1180.59 $18.00 $16.95
12/31/2004 1211.92 $17.95 $13.94
9/30/2004 1114.58 $16.88 $14.18
6/30/2004 1140.84 $16.98 $15.25
3/31/2004 1126.21 $15.87 $15.18
12/31/2003 1111.92 $14.88 $13.16
9/30/2003 995.97 $14.41 $12.56
6/30/2003 974.50 $12.92 $11.10
3/31/2003 848.18 $12.48 $11.92
12/31/2002 879.82 $11.94 $3.00
9/30/2002 815.28 $11.61 $8.53
6/30/2002 989.81 $11.64 $6.87
3/31/2002 1147.39 $10.85 $9.19
12/31/2001 1148.08 $9.94 $5.45
9/30/2001 1040.94 $9.16 $5.23
6/30/2001 1224.38 $9.02 $4.83
3/31/2001 1160.33 $10.73 $9.18
12/31/2000 1320.28 $13.11 $9.07
9/30/2000 1436.51 $14.17 $13.71
6/30/2000 1454.60 $14.88 $13.48
3/31/2000 1498.58 $13.97 $13.74
12/31/1999 1469.25 $13.77 $12.77
9/30/1999 1282.71 $12.97 $11.93
6/30/1999 1372.71 $13.21 $12.51
3/31/1999 1286.37 $11.73 $10.96
12/31/1998 1229.23 $11.47 $8.56
9/30/1998 1017.01 $10.45 $8.99