Warning signs from AAII Sentiment Survey results this morning (out of “No Man’s Land”)

AAII Sentiment Survey results are out this morning.  After four weeks of grinding sideways in “No Man’s Land” Bullishness is now up OVER the 40 level – which usually marks market reversals.  Bearishness has collapsed.

In the S&P500 chart above I have noted those dates in the recent past where Sentiment was at similar levels (Bullishness ~40, Bearishness <30). You can follow along with the red circles on the sentiment results below.

Just because these readings correlated with pullbacks in the recent past does not mean they will do so this time. It does however mean we should be paying attention. It is possible we can burn through these elevated readings and go higher, but the odds don’t favor it. As with all indicators, they are to be used as barometers, not crystal balls.

Be in the know. 6 key reads for Thursday…

  1. Chipotle downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies (TheFly)
  2. Bull Market in “adjusted earnings” (Barron’s)
  3. CEO of Tiny California Bank Makes Twice as Much as Jamie Dimon (Bloomberg)
  4. Ted Cruz threatens to regulate Facebook, Google and Twitter over charges of anti-conservative bias (USA Today)
  5. Oil prices pull back as IEA says demand data sending ‘mixed signals’ (MarketWatch)
  6. U.S. weekly jobless claims lowest since 1969 (Reuters)

 

Be in the know. 8 key reads for Wednesday…

  1. China investment, markets recovery should boost global economy later in the year, IMF says (MarketWatch)
  2. Bristol-Myers, JPMorgan, and 2 Other Dividend-Paying Stocks That Could Beat the Market (Barron’s)
  3. Opinion: Move over, Ferrari and Lamborghini — this Italian electric car’s 1,900 horsepower makes it faster than a Formula 1 racer (MarketWatch)
  4. U.S. Readies $11 Billion in Tariffs on E.U. (New York Times)
  5. 7 things you didn’t know you could do with Gmail (USA Today)
  6. ECB Keeps Policy Unchanged as Euro-Area Economy Faces New Risks (Bloomberg)
  7. Apple downgraded by HSBC to sell rating on concern about new services: ‘Too late to the game’ (CNBC)
  8. 2019 NHL Playoffs: Stanley Cup Odds for All 16 Teams in the Postseason (Newsweek)

Be in the know. 7 key reads for Tuesday…

  1. Demand for Saudi Aramco Bonds Sails Past the Goal (New York Times)
  2. U.S. threatens tariffs on European wine and cheese in response to Airbus subsidies (MarketWatch)
  3. Fed Moves to Ease Living Wills, Allowing Large Banks to File Wind-Down Plans Less Frequently (Wall Street Journal)
  4. Potential U.S. auto tariffs would hurt Germany, Japan, Korea: Moody’s (Reuters)
  5. March Small Business Optimism Stalls on Weak Outlook for Economic Growth (24/7 Wall Street)
  6. 8 Levels of Financial Freedom (Forbes)
  7. Daniel Loeb’s Third Point hedge fund building a stake to pressure Sony, sources say (last time George Clooney wasn’t happy about it) (Japan Times)